Summary
Equities rallied this week, with the Nasdaq leading at +2.69%, the S&P 500 gaining +1.71%, and the Dow advancing +0.74%, even as the 10-year Treasury yield rose +9 basis points to 4.48%. Economic data was broadly solid, with the Chicago PMI falling to 56.7 in June from 62.7 but still topping estimates, JOLTS showing 7.594 million job openings in May, and Challenger data pointing to a slowdown in layoffs, with job cuts falling -4.5% year over year. The private sector added +98,000 jobs in June, slightly below the +120,000 estimate, while the ISM Manufacturing Index expanded to 53.3 despite a modest miss. The standout was the ISM Prices Index, which fell sharply to 73.0 from 82.1, a welcome bright spot on the inflation front. On policy, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated his preference to scale back the central bank’s bond portfolio while emphasizing that interest-rate policy should remain the Fed’s primary tool; traders have now fully priced in +1 rate hike at the October meeting, along with a +42% probability of an additional hike in December. On the corporate side, Meta (NYSE: META) jumped over +8% after announcing plans to build a cloud business to sell excess AI computing capacity to third parties, and Nike (NYSE: NKE) popped nearly +5% after topping estimates and expanding gross margin +8.9%, aided by a nearly $986 million expected tariff refund, even as China sales fell -12%. Commodities were broadly mixed to close out June, with spot gold falling -1.2%, spot silver little changed, and WTI Crude declining -1.6% after the US and Iran agreed to halt strikes following renewed hostilities over the weekend, while Bitcoin rebounded roughly +0.50% and the dollar was unchanged.
10-Year Treasury Yield
- Current Rate: 4.48% (as of July 1, 2026)
- Week-to-Date Movement: +9bps (from 4.39% on June 25, 2026)
Major U.S. Equity Indices Performance
- S&P 500: 7,357.49 → 7,483.23 (+1.71% WTD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Avg: 51,920.62 → 52,305.24 (+0.74% WTD)
- Nasdaq Composite: 25,358.60 → 26,040.03 (+2.69% WTD)
Notable Market Events
Macroeconomic Data:
The Chicago PMI fell to 56.7 in June from 62.7 the prior month, though it still topped the 55.1 estimate, with the decline driven by weaker new orders, which held in expansion for a second month, and slowing production that nearly reversed the previous month’s gain. JOLTS data showed 7.594 million job openings in May, with the openings rate holding steady at 4.6%. Challenger, Gray & Christmas data pointed to a slowdown in layoffs, with job cuts falling -4.5% year over year to 45,849 for the month. MBA Mortgage Applications were unchanged for the week ending June 26th, easing from the +1.0% gain the prior week. The private sector added +98,000 jobs in June, slightly below the +120,000 estimate. The ISM Manufacturing Index expanded to 53.3, a modest miss versus the 53.9 estimate, as new orders grew at a slower pace and employment remained in contraction. The standout, however, was the ISM Prices Index, which fell sharply to 73.0 from 82.1, a welcome bright spot on the inflation front. Construction Spending rose +0.1% in May, decelerating from the +0.3% gain the prior month.
Economic Policy:
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated his preference for the central bank to scale back its bond portfolio following extensive public preparation. Warsh emphasized that any decision to shrink the balance sheet would be made by the full FOMC and the board, and that he wants interest-rate policy to remain the Fed’s primary tool. According to swaps tied to the Fed Funds Rate, traders have now fully priced in +1 rate hike at the October meeting, along with a +42% probability of an additional hike by the December meeting.
Business:
Shares of Meta (NYSE: META) jumped over +8% on Thursday after the company announced it plans to build a cloud business to sell excess artificial intelligence computing capacity. The company hopes to generate revenue from selling excess computing power to third parties. Shares of Nike (NYSE: NKE) popped nearly +5% on Thursday after the company topped estimates even as China sales dropped 12%. The company’s gross margin increased +8.9% during the quarter, largely due to an expected tariff refund of nearly $986 million.
Markets:
Commodities were broadly mixed to close out June. Precious metals were mixed, with spot gold falling -1.2% and spot silver little changed. WTI Crude declined -1.6% after the US and Iran agreed to halt strikes following renewed hostilities over the weekend. Bitcoin rebounded roughly +0.50%, while the dollar was unchanged.
Stock Sector Performance
All performance figures and market events are sourced from Bloomberg as of market close 7/1/2026, using the prior Friday’s market open as the start date.
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